Fall Real Estate Outlook in the Catskills
The wild ride of 2021 began to slow down in 2022, and as the leaves begin to turn it appears the ride is coming to a stop. For now.
In other words, a soft market is getting downright squishy.
First, if you've been following me on Substack, apologies. Due to some weird glitch, I can't get that site to recognize me, so I'm back here, where it knows who I am.
A lot has changed since I last published from this site. The biggest change is that I opened my own real estate company. And the reason I did it relates to the trends I'm seeing.
Spring of 2022 was a much more leisurely affair than the prior year, and all signs pointed toward a slowdown. So, as you do when business slows down, I took at look at what I could do to travel more lightly. Prices are up. So are interest rates. Inventory is low. And demand is off. All the headlines warned of a recession, and it seems like a real possibility.
The main answer, for me, was to stop paying a corporation for the work I do. I've established myself in the town where I live, and there's plenty of room to grow. So I opened Upstate Country Realty in May, and now work entirely for myself.
A dear friend has joined me, and we may take on a couple of more agents in the future, but my intent is to stay small and more maneuverable. We're going to advertise the properties we have, double down on marketing, and come through this slowdown stronger than before. We tell our clients we do it better, and now is the time to prove it.
Big luxury brand corporations have moved into the western Catskills this year, sensing opportunity as more folks leave the city behind, or at least look for a part time refuge. Those global companies don't know the market, and the prices they're putting on the few properties they have reflects that.
There's another big push to get sellers to list their properties themselves, using FSBO companies that do nothing except get the properties on MLS. They offer deep discounts on commissions, and well they should. They offer no expertise in a rural area like this, and I think sellers will eventually realize they're getting what they pay for.
A lot of agents I know have jumped ship from large corporations to smaller firms. And even more are hopping back and forth between the big real estate brands. Many more will, I predict, get out of the business entirely. It's not easy to keep going when your income is based solely on sales commissions.
Now let's talk about buyers. When something happens once, it's a fluke - or a warning. But more than once? That's a trend in the making. And the trend is buyers pulling back.
More than one buyer client has told me they've decided to put their search on hold. The hike in interest rates has made buying a property a scarier prospect than it was when interest rates were close to zero.
And one couple who found the house of their dreams has decided to let it go. Why? Concerns about their own business, combined with interest rates which have risen steadily in the past six months.
The closings I have coming up in the next couple of months are all cash sales. No mortgages.
Banks have got to be seeing this.
Realtors can't miss it.
The Catskills are going to continue to draw more visitors, and more buyers. The Hudson Valley has priced itself out of reach. Delaware and Otsego Counties, once considered "too far" by everyone but a few hardy downstate hunters, are worth the extra half hour or so if you can save a hundred thousand dollars. And you can. And they're no longer too remote if all you need to work from home is a high speed internet connection. Most of us have that now.
Our small town life, the big skies, the slower pace and a bit of elbow room are not unattainable or impractical. They're relatively affordable. That's hard to resist.
But I expect it'll be a quiet winter this year. And we'll be busy again in the spring.
https://www.upstatecountryrealty.com
